Semen Padangvs
PSMS Medan
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 2 · 10/17/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PSMS Medan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Semen Padang 1-1 PSMS Medan
Original prediction
PSMS Medan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 35.9% | 29.7% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.1% | 27.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 35.9% | 42.6% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
PSMS Medan
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
PSMS Medan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80