Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Selfoss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (7%), 4-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Selfoss 6-0 Magni
Original prediction
Selfoss
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 64.0% | 70.4% | 6.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.78 | 18.8% | 14.1% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 5.26 | 17.1% | 15.5% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–17%
- 2.4–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Selfoss
Probability
70.4%
Model confidence
70.4%
Selfoss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SelfossWDWLW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MagniWDWLW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SelfossMagni
78.9Attack59.6
40.4Defence22.8
63.2Form43.9
61.8Power42.7
4.28xG1.92