Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Selfoss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (8%), 5-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Selfoss 2-1 KFG
Original prediction
Selfoss
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 74.0% | 76.6% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.36 | 14.2% | 11.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 7.67 | 11.8% | 11.5% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–18%
- 2.5–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Selfoss
Probability
76.6%
Model confidence
76.6%
Selfoss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SelfossWWWDW
GF 19 · GA 6 · avg 3.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
KFGWLWWL
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
SelfossKFG
84.1Attack58.7
44.4Defence11.1
66.7Form34.9
64.9Power35.7
4.50xG1.71