Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Selangor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Selangor 3-1 Penang
Original prediction
Selangor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 75.1% | 63.7% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.59 | 15.9% | 20.1% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 9.92 | 9.0% | 16.2% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Selangor
Probability
63.7%
Model confidence
63.7%
Selangor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SelangorLWWWW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
PenangLLWWD
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SelangorPenang
100.0Attack25.0
75.0Defence58.3
100.0Form33.3
92.0Power41.9
2.39xG0.89