Seattle Soundersvs
Chicago Fire
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/29/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seattle Sounders 2-2 Chicago Fire
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 33.4% | 26.1% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.2% | 23.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 41.4% | 50.2% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20