Scunthorpevs
Hartlepool
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Scunthorpe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Scunthorpe 4-1 Hartlepool
Original prediction
Scunthorpe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 44.5% | 40.5% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.6% | 28.8% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.9% | 30.7% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Scunthorpe
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Scunthorpe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60