Scunthorpevs
Derby County U21
COMPLETEDEngland · National League Cup · 10/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Scunthorpe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Scunthorpe 2-2 Derby County U21
Original prediction
Scunthorpe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 60.8% | 43.9% | -17.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 20.7% | 26.8% | 6.0 pts |
| Away | 4.89 | 18.4% | 29.4% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Scunthorpe
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Scunthorpe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 11 · GA 16 · avg 2.20/3.20