World CupWorld Cup
Wednesday, 24 June 2026Last updated 12:36
Scotland

Scotland

Home
LLW
03
Full time
Brazil

Brazil

Away
LWWWD
Hard Rock Stadium
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Brazil(52%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Prediction correct— Result: Brazil
Win probability
Scotland
25%
Draw
23%
Brazil
52%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Scotland
14
Brazil
73
Defence
Scotland
53
Brazil
73
Momentum
Scotland
33
Brazil
67
Danger (xG)
Scotland
0.77
Brazil
2.09
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.31 xG for Scotland and 1.44 xG for Brazil. Scotland's projected xG of 1.31 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Brazil's Defensive Stability Score (73) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (14). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 2.75 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Scotland's Defensive Stability (53) and Brazil's (73) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Scotland)
0.77
avg per match
xG for (Brazil)
2.09
avg per match
xG against (Scotland)
1.79
avg per match
xG against (Brazil)
0.61
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
ScotlandScotland
LLW
BrazilBrazil
LWWWD

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Scotland25%
Draw23%
Brazil52%

Brazil leads with 52% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Brazil Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-2

Scotland take on Brazil in World Cup.

Key factors

: 📊 Power Rating Advantage Goalvio's Power Ratings place Brazil (1045) above Scotland (987) — a meaningful gap built from opponent-adjusted results, xG trends, and squad consistency. That gap feeds directly into the model's Brazil projection.
: ⚡ Momentum Edge Brazil enter this fixture with a significantly stronger Momentum Score (67 vs 33), reflecting more consistent performances and better underlying numbers over recent matches. This is one of the primary reasons the model favours Brazil.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Brazil's Defensive Stability Score of 73 compares favourably to Scotland's 53. Goalvio's defence metric accounts for goals conceded, clean sheet frequency, and opponent quality — Brazil have been the more organised unit and that solidity is reflected in the projected scoreline.

Why GoalVio backs this

Brazil enter this fixture with a significantly stronger Momentum Score (67 vs 33). Momentum captures the trajectory of recent performances — not just results, but the underlying quality of those performances. Brazil are trending upward while Scotland have been less consistent, and that gap is the primary driver of this projection.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Brazil, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Scotland score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • Scotland are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.12 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Scotland 0Draws 01 Brazil
Avg goals: 3.0
24 Jun 2026
Scotland
L03
Brazil
xG 0.94.4

Recent form

Scotland

Scotland

L
vs Brazil
24 Jun 2026
03
xG 0.9
L
vs Morocco
19 Jun 2026
01
xG 0.5
W
@ Haiti
14 Jun 2026
10
Brazil

Brazil

L
vs Norway
5 Jul 2026
12
xG 1.9
W
vs Japan
29 Jun 2026
21
xG 1.7
W
@ Scotland
24 Jun 2026
30
xG 4.4
W
vs Haiti
20 Jun 2026
30
xG 1.5
D
vs Morocco
13 Jun 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Scotland vs Brazil?

GoalVio's model predicts Brazil to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Brazil?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Scotland vs Brazil?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Scotland vs Brazil?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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