Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dornbirn · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Schwaz 3-0 Dornbirn
Original prediction
Dornbirn
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 28.9% | 22.3% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.1% | 19.3% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 47.0% | 58.5% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Dornbirn
Probability
58.5%
Model confidence
58.5%
Dornbirn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SchwazWWLWL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
DornbirnWDWWW
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
SchwazDornbirn
75.0Attack95.8
37.5Defence79.2
66.7Form83.3
61.8Power82.6
1.48xG2.86