Scarborough Athleticvs
Merthyr Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Scarborough Athletic · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Scarborough Athletic 0-0 Merthyr Town
Original prediction
Scarborough Athletic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.8% | 42.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.1% | 25.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.2% | 31.7% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Scarborough Athletic
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Scarborough Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00