Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Scafatese · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Scafatese 3-2 Sorrento
Original prediction
Scafatese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.8% | 37.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.2% | 29.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 31.0% | 32.5% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Scafatese
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Scafatese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ScafateseWDDWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SorrentoWLLWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ScafateseSorrento
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.44xG1.23