SC Villavs
Mbarara City
COMPLETEDUganda · Premier League · 10/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Villa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: SC Villa 1-0 Mbarara City, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Villa 2-0 Mbarara City
Original prediction
SC Villa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 12:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.3% | 59.8% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.24 | 17.3% | 24.6% | 7.3 pts |
| Away | 12.24 | 7.4% | 15.6% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Projected Score
SC Villa 1–0 Mbarara City
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
SC Villa
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
SC Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SC VillaLWDDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Mbarara CityWLDDL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SC VillaMbarara City
77.8Attack13.3
83.3Defence80.0
77.8Form33.3
77.8Power45.2
1.41xG0.52