SC Paderborn 07vs
1899 Hoffenheim
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/20/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1899 Hoffenheim · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim
Original prediction
1899 Hoffenheim
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.23 | 22.6% | 33.8% | 11.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.33 | 22.1% | 24.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 55.4% | 41.6% | -13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
1899 Hoffenheim
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
1899 Hoffenheim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80