SC Freiburg Wvs
Bayer Leverkusen W
COMPLETEDGermany · Frauen Bundesliga · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayer Leverkusen W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Freiburg W 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen W
Original prediction
Bayer Leverkusen W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.31 | 20.7% | 36.5% | 15.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.5% | 24.6% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.57 | 56.8% | 38.9% | -17.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bayer Leverkusen W
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Bayer Leverkusen W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80