SC Freiburgvs
Werder Bremen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 8/30/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Freiburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Freiburg 4-1 Werder Bremen
Original prediction
SC Freiburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 49.2% | 41.9% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.3% | 23.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 24.5% | 34.7% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
SC Freiburg
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
SC Freiburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 3 · avg 3.40/0.60
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00