SC Freiburgvs
Motherwell
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 8/27/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Freiburg · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Freiburg 4-1 Motherwell
Original prediction
SC Freiburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 77.6% | 46.7% | -30.9 pts |
| Draw | 6.50 | 14.3% | 24.8% | 10.4 pts |
| Away | 11.54 | 8.1% | 28.5% | 20.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
SC Freiburg
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
SC Freiburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00