SC Freiburgvs
FC Schalke 04
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/11/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Freiburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Schalke 04
Original prediction
SC Freiburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 58.0% | 56.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.8% | 23.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 5.20 | 18.3% | 19.9% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
SC Freiburg
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
SC Freiburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60