SC Freiburgvs
Bayern München
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/25/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayern München · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Freiburg 1-3 Bayern München
Original prediction
Bayern München
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.48 | 17.3% | 33.7% | 16.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 18.7% | 22.3% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 64.0% | 44.0% | -20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bayern München
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Bayern München has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 20 · GA 8 · avg 4.00/1.60