SC Covilhavs
Oliveirense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/10/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oliveirense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Covilha 0-0 Oliveirense
Original prediction
Oliveirense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.5% | 31.1% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.0% | 30.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 42.5% | 38.7% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Oliveirense
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Oliveirense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60