Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qarabag · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
SC Braga are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Qarabag are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Qarabag hold a 23.3-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 71.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while Qarabag holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Qarabag
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Qarabag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20