Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zira · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 12 October 2026 at 15:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.94 | 18.4% | 34.3% | 16.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 26.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.2% | 39.4% | -16.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Zira
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Zira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SəbailLWDWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ZiraWDDLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
SəbailZira
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
2.01xG1.71