Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Səbail are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Zira are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Zira hold an 11.9-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 56.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.8% in the Premyer Liqa, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40