Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Səbail are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Sumqayıt are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (LW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sumqayıt hold a 7.8-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.8% in the Premyer Liqa, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/1.00