Səbailvs
Mingəçevir
COMPLETEDAzerbaijan · Birinci Dasta · 9/10/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Səbail · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Səbail 2-1 Mingəçevir
Original prediction
Səbail
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 61.9% | 44.6% | -17.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.1% | 26.5% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 5.62 | 16.0% | 28.8% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Səbail
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Səbail has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SəbailDLDWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MingəçevirDLWWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SəbailMingəçevir
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence33.3
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.48xG1.26