Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Səbail · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Səbail 1-1 Karvan
Original prediction
Səbail
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.5% | 40.6% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.3% | 27.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.3% | 31.6% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Səbail
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Səbail has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SəbailWWDLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
KarvanWLWDL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SəbailKarvan
44.4Attack66.7
77.8Defence77.8
77.8Form66.7
70.7Power68.1
1.28xG1.21