Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Mans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Saumur are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Le Mans are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Le Mans hold a 40.9-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 56.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Le Mans holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Le Mans
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Le Mans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40