Saudi Arabiavs
Iraq
COMPLETEDWorld · Gulf Cup of Nations · 9/29/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saudi Arabia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Saudi Arabia 2-0 Iraq
Original prediction
Saudi Arabia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.6% | 42.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.5% | 29.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.9% | 28.1% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Saudi Arabia
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Saudi Arabia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20