Satunvs
Muangthong United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 9/15/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Satun · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Satun 3-0 Muangthong United
Original prediction
Satun
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.2% | 37.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.8% | 27.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.1% | 35.0% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Satun
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Satun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SatunWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 2.50/2.50
BTTS 2/2O2.5 2/2
Muangthong UnitedWDLDD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SatunMuangthong United
83.3Attack33.3
16.7Defence83.3
50.0Form66.7
51.0Power64.8
1.41xG1.34