Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sassuolo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sassuolo 1-1 Frosinone
Original prediction
Sassuolo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 51.3% | 43.0% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.5% | 26.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.03 | 23.2% | 30.2% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sassuolo
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Sassuolo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SassuoloWLWLL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FrosinoneWLWLD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SassuoloFrosinone
100.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
97.0Power88.7
1.65xG1.34