Sarıyervs
Fatih Karagümrük
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sarıyer · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarıyer 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük
Original prediction
Sarıyer
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 12:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 37.4% | 37.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.0% | 30.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 33.7% | 32.9% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Sarıyer
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Sarıyer has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20