Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sarıyer · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarıyer 2-1 Boluspor
Original prediction
Sarıyer
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.4% | 69.9% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.65 | 16.1% | 18.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 10.73 | 8.5% | 11.7% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Sarıyer
Probability
69.9%
Model confidence
69.9%
Sarıyer has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SarıyerDLWWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BolusporDLLLL
GF 1 · GA 14 · avg 0.20/2.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SarıyerBoluspor
42.9Attack9.5
61.9Defence14.3
52.4Form4.8
53.9Power14.4
2.19xG0.64