Sarpsborg 08 IIvs
Raelingen
COMPLETEDNorway · 3. Division - Girone 6 · 10/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sarpsborg 08 II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-2 (7%), 3-2 (6%), 4-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarpsborg 08 II 1-1 Raelingen
Original prediction
Sarpsborg 08 II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 66.8% | 58.6% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.28 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 5.54 | 16.2% | 23.9% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–27%
- 2.3–26%
- 3.4–36%
Predicted outcome
Sarpsborg 08 II
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Sarpsborg 08 II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80