Sarpsborg 08 IIvs
Gjøvik-Lyn
COMPLETEDNorway · 3. Division - Girone 6 · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gjøvik-Lyn · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarpsborg 08 II 3-2 Gjøvik-Lyn
Original prediction
Gjøvik-Lyn
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 28.6% | 27.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.2% | 19.9% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 48.2% | 52.8% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Gjøvik-Lyn
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Gjøvik-Lyn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40