Sarpsborg 08 FFvs
Aalesund
COMPLETEDNorway · Eliteserien · 10/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sarpsborg 08 FF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Aalesund
Original prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.5% | 44.8% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 23.4% | 25.0% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.58 | 26.0% | 30.2% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Sarpsborg 08 FF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20