Sarmiento Res.vs
Vélez Sársfield Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vélez Sársfield Res. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sarmiento Res. 0-1 Vélez Sársfield Res., with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarmiento Res. 0-1 Vélez Sársfield Res.
Original prediction
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.39 | 20.4% | 24.1% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.3% | 30.0% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 52.3% | 45.9% | -6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Projected Score
Sarmiento Res. 0–1 Vélez Sársfield Res.
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Vélez Sársfield Res.
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Vélez Sársfield Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20