Sarasota Paradisevs
Richmond Kickers
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sarasota Paradise · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarasota Paradise 3-2 Richmond Kickers
Original prediction
Sarasota Paradise
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 61.5% | 52.5% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 21.1% | 24.9% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 5.17 | 17.4% | 22.6% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Sarasota Paradise
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Sarasota Paradise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80