GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One · 3/28/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portland Hearts of Pine · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Sarasota Paradise are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Portland Hearts of Pine are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Portland Hearts of Pine hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (39.4 v 44.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.5% in the USL League One, while Portland Hearts of Pine holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portland Hearts of Pine

Probability

43.4%

Model confidence

13.5%

Portland Hearts of Pine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sarasota ParadiseDLLLW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Portland Hearts of PineDWDWD

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Sarasota ParadisePortland Hearts of Pine
31.6Attack50.9
47.4Defence42.1
31.6Form36.8
39.4Power44.5
1.16xG1.49
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