Sarasota Paradisevs
Naples
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/21/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sarasota Paradise · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarasota Paradise 2-3 Naples
Original prediction
Sarasota Paradise
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.4% | 49.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 25.9% | 24.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 25.7% | 26.4% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Sarasota Paradise
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Sarasota Paradise has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 7 · avg 3.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60