Sarasota Paradisevs
Charlotte Independence
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/3/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlotte Independence · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sarasota Paradise 2-3 Charlotte Independence
Original prediction
Charlotte Independence
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.1% | 32.1% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.6% | 26.9% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.4% | 40.9% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Charlotte Independence
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Charlotte Independence has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80