Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sao Paulo are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tigre are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold a 10.3-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 53.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40