Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sao Paulo 1-2 Santos
Original prediction
Sao Paulo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 13:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 47.8% | 43.1% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.6% | 27.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 23.6% | 29.3% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Sao Paulo
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sao PauloWDLLW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
SantosWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Sao PauloSantos
39.5Attack50.6
63.0Defence50.6
44.4Form46.9
50.8Power51.3
1.25xG1.03