Sao Paulovs
San Lorenzo
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8/10/2023, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sao Paulo are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while San Lorenzo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold a 13.8-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 50.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80