GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8/10/2023, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Sao Paulo are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while San Lorenzo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold a 13.8-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 50.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

44.3%

Model confidence

44.3%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sao PauloLLDLL

GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
San LorenzoWLDLW

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80

BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Sao PauloSan Lorenzo
33.3Attack33.3
90.5Defence72.2
61.9Form38.9
64.0Power50.1
0.85xG0.60
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