GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/19/2023, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Sao Paulo are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (LDWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded, while Puerto Cabello are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 9 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold a 21.4-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 42.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.9% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Sao Paulo holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sao Paulo

Probability

44.9%

Model confidence

44.9%

Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sao PauloLDWW

GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.50

BTTS 1/4O2.5 1/4
Puerto CabelloWDLWW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Sao PauloPuerto Cabello
33.3Attack28.6
90.5Defence57.1
61.9Form38.1
64.0Power42.5
1.08xG0.52
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