Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sao Paulo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while O'Higgins are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold an 8.0-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 56.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60