Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Sao Paulo are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Mirassol are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.1% in the Serie A, while Sao Paulo holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sao Paulo
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20