GGOALVIO

Sao Paulo logoSao PaulovsDeportes Tolima logoDeportes Tolima

COMPLETED

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 6/8/2023, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Sao Paulo are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Deportes Tolima are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold a 13.7-point power-rating edge (64.0 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

41.7%

Model confidence

41.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sao PauloLLWWW

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Deportes TolimaDDDWD

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Sao PauloDeportes Tolima
33.3Attack33.3
90.5Defence61.9
61.9Form52.4
64.0Power50.3
0.97xG0.59
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