Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sao Paulo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 2.0-point power-rating edge (49.3 v 51.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.8% in the Serie A, while Sao Paulo holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sao Paulo
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40