Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santos 0-1 Palmeiras, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santos 0-0 Palmeiras
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 27.6% | 25.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.3% | 29.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 43.1% | 44.8% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Projected Score
Santos 0–1 Palmeiras
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SantosWLDDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
PalmeirasDWWWL
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SantosPalmeiras
20.0Attack100.0
80.0Defence73.3
53.3Form80.0
53.0Power82.1
0.72xG1.19