Santosvs
Newells Old Boys
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 6/7/2023, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Santos are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Newells Old Boys are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Newells Old Boys hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (61.1 v 67.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60