Santosvs
Atletico-MG
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 9/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santos 2-0 Atletico-MG
Original prediction
Santos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.4% | 48.2% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 30.7% | 27.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 24.9% | 24.1% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SantosWDWLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico-MGLWWDD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SantosAtletico-MG
60.0Attack45.8
66.7Defence66.7
56.7Form58.3
61.7Power59.5
1.37xG0.83